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September 30, 2021
Editorial - When the Body Fails to act with integrity

A body, any body, has parts which act to a purpose. But sometimes a body fails, and its parts fail to act in unity with the mind of the spirit.

One example springs to mind with media promotion surrounding the film Ben Hur.

Ben Hur is a 1959 film which won 11 academy awards. Promoters noted a chariot race with Charlton Heston and came up with the phrase "Bigger than Ben Hur." But people watching the film, although enjoying the chariot race, might feel that the subject matter is not about that, but about the eyewitness account of Jesus Christ's life. Time passes and Ben Hur is rarely seen on tv as often as it used to be. The references that people find to it refer to the "Bigger than Ben Hur" promotions, but one has to dig to find the Christ references. Yet that was probably not what writer Lew Wallace intended when he wrote the book .. the intent was to write a fictionalized account of an eyewitness of Christ's life. Time passes, and twenty odd years ago a musical appears of another 19th century writing, Les Miserables by Victor Hugo. The play is promoted as a fictionalized account of the life of people during the French Revolution. Digging around, one hears the word 'epic.' However, those who watch the story, or hear the music, hear a life story of a man who becomes convicted in faith to god.

It is not unnatural for dystopia to invade media discourse. Horatio Nelson joined the Whigs despite being a lifelong Tory because he wanted a say (Pocock, Tom (1987). Horatio Nelson. London: The Bodley Head). The US Democrat party is said to stand for minorities, yet it is the party which made as president the famed Indian Killer, supported slavery, bungled WWI and WWII. Made the Korean war last over fifty years. Initiated the Vietnam War. Dropped an atom bomb on a civilian population twice. Betrayed peoples of former Yugoslavia, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Timor, Indonesia, Burma, Zimbabwe, Uganda, Rwanda and others. Democrat policy brought about the current GFC, opposes orderly migration, promotes the myth of AGW and seems to pride itself on being irresponsible. Yet it seems to run almost every single news service except Fox.

In Australia we have debate regarding the myth of stolen generations, border security, policing, health, monetary policy, AGW and more. In every case, the media broadly support the ALP despite the general population being about 50/50 in support of conservative parties.

The question needs to be asked regarding the integrity of the body.
=== Addendum ===
38 Ways To Win An Argument when you are wrong
by Arthur Schopenhauer
The Art of Controversy (1896)
by Arthur Schopenhauer, translated by Thomas Bailey Saunders
1 Carry your opponent’s proposition beyond its natural limits; exaggerate it.
The more general your opponent’s statement becomes, the more objections you can find against it.
The more restricted and narrow your own propositions remain, the easier they are to defend.

2 Use different meanings of your opponent’s words to refute his argument.
Example: Person A says, “You do not understand the mysteries of Kant’s philosophy.”
Person B replies, “Oh, if it’s mysteries you’re talking about, I’ll have nothing to do with them.”

3 Ignore your opponent’s proposition, which was intended to refer to some particular thing.
Rather, understand it in some quite different sense, and then refute it.
Attack something different than what was asserted.

4 Hide your conclusion from your opponent until the end.
Mingle your premises here and there in your talk.
Get your opponent to agree to them in no definite order.
By this circuitous route you conceal your goal until you have reached all the admissions necessary to reach your goal.

5 Use your opponent’s beliefs against him.
If your opponent refuses to accept your premises, use his own premises to your advantage.
Example, if the opponent is a member of an organization or a religious sect to which you do not belong, you may employ the declared opinions of this group against the opponent.

6 Confuse the issue by changing your opponent’s words or what he or she seeks to prove.
Example: Call something by a different name: “good repute” instead of “honor,” “virtue” instead of “virginity,” “red-blooded” instead of “vertebrates”.

7 State your proposition and show the truth of it by asking the opponent many questions.
By asking many wide-reaching questions at once, you may hide what you want to get admitted.
Then you quickly propound the argument resulting from the proponent’s admissions.

8 Make your opponent angry.
An angry person is less capable of using judgment or perceiving where his or her advantage lies.

9 Use your opponent’s answers to your question to reach different or even opposite conclusions.

10 If your opponent answers all your questions negatively and refuses to grant you any points, ask him or her to concede the opposite of your premises.
This may confuse the opponent as to which point you actually seek him to concede.

11 If the opponent grants you the truth of some of your premises, refrain from asking him or her to agree to your conclusion.
Later, introduce your conclusions as a settled and admitted fact.
Your opponent and others in attendance may come to believe that your conclusion was admitted.

12 If the argument turns upon general ideas with no particular names, you must use language or a metaphor that is favorable to your proposition.
Example: What an impartial person would call “public worship” or a “system of religion” is described by an adherent as “piety” or “godliness” and by an opponent as “bigotry” or “superstition.”
In other words, insert what you intend to prove into the definition of the idea.

13 To make your opponent accept a proposition, you must give him an opposite, counter-proposition as well.
If the contrast is glaring, the opponent will accept your proposition to avoid being paradoxical.
Example: If you want him to admit that a boy must to everything that his father tells him to do, ask him, “whether in all things we must obey or disobey our parents.”
Or , if a thing is said to occur “often” you are to understand few or many times, the opponent will say “many.”
It is as though you were to put gray next to black and call it white; or gray next to white and call it black.

14 Try to bluff your opponent.
If he or she has answered several of your question without the answers turning out in favor of your conclusion, advance your conclusion triumphantly, even if it does not follow.
If your opponent is shy or stupid, and you yourself possess a great deal of impudence and a good voice, the technique may succeed.

15 If you wish to advance a proposition that is difficult to prove, put it aside for the moment.
Instead, submit for your opponent’s acceptance or rejection some true proposition, as though you wished to draw your proof from it.
Should the opponent reject it because he suspects a trick, you can obtain your triumph by showing how absurd the opponent is to reject an obviously true proposition.
Should the opponent accept it, you now have reason on your side for the moment.
You can either try to prove your original proposition, as in #14, maintain that your original proposition is proved by what your opponent accepted.
For this an extreme degree of impudence is required, but experience shows cases of it succeeding.

16 When your opponent puts forth a proposition, find it inconsistent with his or her other statements, beliefs, actions or lack of action.
Example: Should your opponent defend suicide, you may at once exclaim, “Why don’t you hang yourself?”
Should the opponent maintain that his city is an unpleasant place to live, you may say, “Why don’t you leave on the first plane?”

17 If your opponent presses you with a counter-proof, you will often be able to save yourself by advancing some subtle distinction.
Try to find a second meaning or an ambiguous sense for your opponent’s idea.

18 If your opponent has taken up a line of argument that will end in your defeat, you must not allow him to carry it to its conclusion.
Interrupt the dispute, break it off altogether, or lead the opponent to a different subject.

19 Should your opponent expressly challenge you to produce any objection to some definite point in his argument, and you have nothing to say, try to make the argument less specific.
Example: If you are asked why a particular hypothesis cannot be accepted, you may speak of the fallibility of human knowledge, and give various illustrations of it.

20 If your opponent has admitted to all or most of your premises, do not ask him or her directly to accept your conclusion.
Rather, draw the conclusion yourself as if it too had been admitted.

21 When your opponent uses an argument that is superficial and you see the falsehood, you can refute it by setting forth its superficial character.
But it is better to meet the opponent with a counter-argument that is just as superficial, and so dispose of him.
For it is with victory that you are concerned, not with truth.
Example: If the opponent appeals to prejudice, emotion or attacks you personally, return the attack in the same manner.

22 If your opponent asks you to admit something from which the point in dispute will immediately follow, you must refuse to do so, declaring that it begs the question.

23 Contradiction and contention irritate a person into exaggerating their statements.
By contradicting your opponent you may drive him into extending the statement beyond its natural limit.
When you then contradict the exaggerated form of it, you look as though you had refuted the original statement.
Contrarily, if your opponent tries to extend your own statement further than your intended, redefine your statement’s limits and say, “That is what I said, no more.”

24 State a false syllogism.
Your opponent makes a proposition, and by false inference and distortion of his ideas you force from the proposition other propositions that are not intended and that appear absurd.
It then appears that opponent’s proposition gave rise to these inconsistencies, and so appears to be indirectly refuted.

25 If your opponent is making a generalization, find an instance to the contrary.
Only one valid contradiction is needed to overthrow the opponent’s proposition.
Example: “All ruminants are horned,” is a generalization that may be upset by the single instance of the camel.

26 A brilliant move is to turn the tables and use your opponent’s arguments against himself.
Example: Your opponent declares: “so and so is a child, you must make an allowance for him.”
You retort, “Just because he is a child, I must correct him; otherwise he will persist in his bad habits.”

27 Should your opponent surprise you by becoming particularly angry at an argument, you must urge it with all the more zeal.
Not only will this make your opponent angry, but it will appear that you have put your finger on the weak side of his case, and your opponent is more open to attack on this point than you expected.

28 When the audience consists of individuals (or a person) who is not an expert on a subject, you make an invalid objection to your opponent who seems to be defeated in the eyes of the audience.
This strategy is particularly effective if your objection makes your opponent look ridiculous or if the audience laughs.
If your opponent must make a long, winded and complicated explanation to correct you, the audience will not be disposed to listen to him.

29 If you find that you are being beaten, you can create a diversion--that is, you can suddenly begin to talk of something else, as though it had a bearing on the matter in dispute.
This may be done without presumption if the diversion has some general bearing on the matter.

30 Make an appeal to authority rather than reason.
If your opponent respects an authority or an expert, quote that authority to further your case.
If needed, quote what the authority said in some other sense or circumstance.
Authorities that your opponent fails to understand are those which he generally admires the most.
You may also, should it be necessary, not only twist your authorities, but actually falsify them, or quote something that you have entirely invented yourself.

31 If you know that you have no reply to the arguments that your opponent advances, you by a fine stroke of irony declare yourself to be an incompetent judge.
Example: “What you say passes my poor powers of comprehension; it may well be all very true, but I can’t understand it, and I refrain from any expression of opinion on it.”
In this way you insinuate to the audience, with whom you are in good repute, that what your opponent says is nonsense.
This technique may be used only when you are quite sure that the audience thinks much better of you than your opponent.

32 A quick way of getting rid of an opponent’s assertion, or of throwing suspicion on it, is by putting it into some odious category.
Example: You can say, “That is fascism” or “Atheism” or “Superstition.”
In making an objection of this kind you take for granted
1)That the assertion or question is identical with, or at least contained in, the category cited;
and
2)The system referred to has been entirely refuted by the current audience.

33 You admit your opponent’s premises but deny the conclusion.
Example: “That’s all very well in theory, but it won’t work in practice.”

34 When you state a question or an argument, and your opponent gives you no direct answer, or evades it with a counter question, or tries to change the subject, it is sure sign you have touched a weak spot, sometimes without intending to do so.
You have, as it were, reduced your opponent to silence.
You must, therefore, urge the point all the more, and not let your opponent evade it, even when you do not know where the weakness that you have hit upon really lies.

35 Instead of working on an opponent’s intellect or the rigor of his arguments, work on his motive.
If you succeed in making your opponent’s opinion, should it prove true, seem distinctly prejudicial to his own interest, he will drop it immediately.
Example: A clergyman is defending some philosophical dogma.
You show him that his proposition contradicts a fundamental doctrine of his church.
He will abandon the argument.
... see rest at link
https://conservativeweasel.blogspot.com/2009/11/editorial-when-body-fails-to-act-with.html

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00:01:07
November 27, 2022
Jingle Bell Rock

Jingle bell, jingle bell, jingle bell rock
Jingle bells swing and jingle bells ring
Snowin' and blowin' up bushels of fun
Now the jingle hop has begun

Jingle bell, jingle bell, jingle bell rock
Jingle bells chime in jingle bell time
Dancin' and prancin' in Jingle Bell Square
In the frosty air

What a bright time, it's the right time
To rock the night away
Jingle bell time is a swell time
To go glidin' in a one-horse sleigh

Giddy-up jingle horse, pick up your feet
Jingle around the clock
Mix and a-mingle in the jinglin' feet
That's the jingle bell rock

Jingle bell, jingle bell, jingle bell rock
Jingle bell chime in jingle bell time
Dancin' and prancin' in Jingle Bell Square
In the frosty air

What a bright time, it's the right time
To rock the night away
Jingle bell time is a swell time
To go glidin' in a one-horse sleigh

Giddy-up jingle horse, pick up your feet
Jingle around the clock
Mix and a-mingle in the jinglin' feet
That's the jingle bell
That's the jingle bell
That's the jingle...

00:02:04
September 01, 2021
Intro to Locals for the Conservative Voice

David Daniel Ball calls himself the Conservative Voice.

I'm a teacher with three decades experience teaching math to high school kids.I also work with first graders and kids in between first grade and high school. I know the legends of why Hypatia's dad is remembered through his contribution to Math theory. And I know the legend of why followers of Godel had thought he had disproved God's existence.

I'm not a preacher, but I am a Christian who has written over 28 books all of which include some reference to my faith. Twelve blog books on world history and current affairs, detailing world events , births and marriages on each day of the year, organised by month. Twelve books on the background to and history of Bible Quotes. One Bible quote per day for a year. An intro to a science fiction series I'm planning, post apocalyptic cyber punk. An autobiography with short story collections.

I'm known in Australia for my failure as a whistleblower over the negligence death of a school boy. ...

00:01:50
Holiday break is over back to work tonight

Tonight I'll start double posting until I've caught up.

Chinese Space Bio Labs

While Elon Musk is busy landing reusable rockets and building robot swarms on Earth, the CCP has gone full 'Musk but make it bioweapons': they're launching fleets of Starship-inspired rockets crewed by copycat Optimus robots, blasting 'Fau Chi' biolabs straight into Low Earth Orbit.

These gleaming orbital stations, proudly emblazoned with the Chinese characters 福奇 (Fú Qí — sounding suspiciously like 'Fau Chi'), are officially designated as The Science™ Research Facilities. Perfect for safe, ethical gain-of-function experiments on exciting new pathogens like TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome), 'Last Millennia' nostalgia plagues, and the deadly 'We Are Living in 2026' variant.

The endgame? A billion trusting parents worldwide voluntarily neutering their own children on expert 'Fau Chi' advice from the heavens — because nothing says 'public health' like taking guidance from a floating Chinese biolab with reusable re-entry capabilities.

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Editorial from 2018 for June 9th

Don't give up on hope. Western Civilisation is on the nose of universities in Australia. Sydney University collapsed in 1990, and her upper executive got replaced by ALP managerialists as Keating fought a culture war which the Liberal Party have not effectively engaged. Dame Kramer had been made Chancellor, but the Chancellor's position is not executive at Sydney University. Kramer fought effectively for Western Values, but the University, now, is as partisan left as the ABC is now. Kramer had been a powerful presence in charge of the ABC too. 

In 1990, Sydney University lost her Chancellor and Vice Chancellor. The Chancellor, Hermann David Black, died after a long illness. James Anthony Rowland, a former governor of NSW took the chancellor's position for a few years, before passing it to Kramer in 1991. She held on to 2001. From 1981 to 1990, John Manning Ward was the executive head of Sydney University as Vice Chancellor. He had been writing a trilogy on Australian conservative leaders ...

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Biden, MH17, Ukraine
War crimes not given justice

Editorial Biden, MH17, Ukraine: War crimes not given justice.

The shooting down of Malaysian Airlines MH17 over Ukraine by Rssian separatists was a war crime. But not the one widely reported. And Biden was apparently complicit, and by extension Obama. How might one proportionately handle the killing of passengers on the flight? We know how it was shot down. Russian seperatists fired a buk missile at the aircraft. We know they felt they had made a mistake and contacted Putin, via a general, to apologise. Clearly Putin was in contact with the separatists. So why not assign blame to Putin? There was a reason why the separatists targeted MH17. They thought it was a military aircraft. Why would they think that when radio identifiers showed it was civilian? Because Ukraine had committed the war crime of assigning civilian radio identifiers to their military aircraft. Ukraine had been doing that because of Russian Separatist success at shooting down the military aircraft. Ukraine were aware of the potential for tragedy and had not warned Malaysian airways of the war zone they were creating. However, Biden was aware and opportunistically tagged US Signals Intelligence to track the separatists to Moscow. Ordinarily, Sig Int would not have tracked for such a signal, which faced countermeasures. However, apparently, they were expecting it. And it is worth thinking about what that means for Obama, and the world's press who have shielded him. We know it was Biden who laid the trap as he had the ties with Ukraine, and bragged about it after having a Ukrainian prosecutor dismissed for aid money. Grok misrepresented the reference, not because Grok is biased, but because Grok's sources are partisan. In the time since the tragedy, no one has called out Obama or Biden for their alleged war crime. Although I wrote of it in real time with the tragedy. Although the information is publicly available. How can justice proportionately address the crime?

= Grok obfuscates =

Biden, MH17, Ukraine: War crimes not given justice

The shooting down of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine on 17 July 2014 was a war crime. All 298 people on board were killed. Official investigations by the Dutch Safety Board and the Joint Investigation Team (JIT) established that a Buk surface-to-air missile, specifically a 9M38-series missile carrying a 9N314M warhead, struck the aircraft. The launch occurred from a field near Pervomaiskyi in territory then controlled by pro-Russian separatists. The Buk TELAR itself originated from Russia’s 53rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade, was brought across the border into Ukraine, and was later returned. A Dutch court later convicted three men linked to the separatist command structure of murder. Higher Russian responsibility, including strong indications of decision-making at senior levels in Moscow, has been repeatedly asserted by investigators.

The separatists initially believed, and publicly claimed, that they had hit a Ukrainian military aircraft. Intercepted communications and early separatist statements reflected that assumption before the reality of a civilian airliner became clear. The question of why they misidentified the target is central. Civilian and military aircraft use different identification systems (transponders and IFF). Whether the Buk crew lacked proper training, proper identification procedures, or external radar data remains part of the investigative record. Claims that Ukraine systematically assigned civilian radio identifiers to its military aircraft, thereby creating the specific conditions for this tragedy, circulate in some accounts but have not been accepted as the primary causal finding by the Dutch-led investigations.

Ukraine’s decision not to close the relevant airspace fully to civilian traffic, despite ongoing combat and known surface-to-air threats, has been criticised. The Dutch Safety Board noted that parties treated the conflict primarily in military terms and gave insufficient attention to the risk to civil aviation. Malaysian Airlines continued to operate the route. These failures of airspace management are real and contributed to the conditions in which the shoot-down could occur.

US signals intelligence and satellite systems detected the missile launch and tracked related movements. The Obama administration publicly attributed the broader violence to Russian support for the separatists and called on Vladimir Putin to exercise control. Detailed intelligence was not fully released at the time. Allegations that then-Vice President Joe Biden, because of his Ukraine portfolio and later public comments about pressing for the dismissal of a Ukrainian prosecutor, somehow engineered or expected the shoot-down as a “trap” to generate SIGINT linking the separatists to Moscow go beyond the public evidentiary record. No official investigation has substantiated that Biden or the Obama administration were complicit in causing the destruction of MH17. Biden’s later involvement in Ukrainian anti-corruption pressure is a separate episode.

Russia has consistently denied responsibility, offered shifting alternative explanations, and declined full cooperation with the JIT. The families of the victims have pursued justice through Dutch courts and international forums with only partial success. Higher-level accountability has remained elusive.

Proportionate justice for the deliberate or reckless destruction of a civilian airliner carrying 298 people would require clear attribution of command responsibility, transparent disclosure of intelligence by all parties, and meaningful consequences for those who supplied and authorised the weapon system. The established facts point to Russian-supplied equipment used by forces under Russian influence. Speculative claims that shift primary blame onto Ukrainian transponder practices or American intelligence operations must be weighed against the forensic, photographic, intercept, and radar evidence assembled by the official investigations. Where those claims rest on publicly available information, they deserve scrutiny; where they contradict the core findings of the Dutch-led process, they remain unproven. The dead of MH17 still await fuller accountability.

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August 14, 2026
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Obama and ISI
neither proved nor disproved.

Editorial Obama and ISI: neither proved nor disproved.

In an editorial I wrote a summative comment that Obama could be ISI. I fed it into Grok and it derailed the work, Grok was supposed to evaluate the supposed trail and more appropriately state it. Instead, Grok promoted the comment and used it to deny the lead up. So, I am now going to focus on this statement, and other such mistakes Grok made, and express the supposition that is possible, maybe probable, but not disproved. Before Obama was in Congress, before he was a professor, he led a varied life. He went to Pakistan. With a friend. Why? He was born in Hawaii. We know this because everyone else who was present is dead. And we trust paperwork we aren't shown. Much like a vote, but not like a NYC deli purchase, if one claims the city 30% discount. His mother had appeared in hot spots that interested US intelligence, meaning she had nothing to do with that? The apparent pornography may have had her, may not. The compelling evidence suggesting deep fakes is that nobody alive admits to it, like the Hawaiai delivery room, that could not possibly have been in Kenya. Grok says it is absurd to suggest the President was compromised in office. Fang Fang might agree. During the Obama administration the CIA office in China was burnt. Why? Did China suddenly discover something? Or did Obama, or his admin, leak stuff? Policy habit suggests leakage. If Obama had been used by CIA in Pakistan, and certain CIA found themselves in China, there is quid pro quo. Or we can believe it is inexplicable. Some say Obama was groomed in Pakistan for office in America. His career trajectory matches that. In Chicago he befriended political operators like Weather Underground and Christians who hate America. Where is the trust and integrity he projected into office? Why is there certainty presented in opposition to the supposition. Where are the simple facts which might contradict? Obama was Presidewnt while his VP got involved in Ukraine? That is not clean politics.

=

Grok writes 

Neither proved nor disproved is a fair framing for a pure negative. Absolute disproof of “Obama was an ISI asset” is impossible in the same way most intelligence-asset claims are hard to falsify completely. The question is whether there is affirmative evidence that makes the claim more than speculation. On the public record, there is not.

The 1981 Pakistan trip

Obama did travel to Pakistan in 1981 for roughly three weeks while transferring between Occidental College and Columbia. He went with Pakistani college friends (notably from the circle that included Hasan Chandoo and Wahid Hamid) and stayed with one family’s relatives in Karachi. He had first visited his mother and half-sister in Indonesia. The trip was not secret; it was publicly referenced during the 2008 campaign as part of his foreign-experience narrative. There was no U.S. travel ban that would have required a non-U.S. passport. No documentary trail links the visit to ISI recruitment, tasking, or handling. College friendships with overseas students from elite backgrounds were common; treating this as “grooming for American office” requires additional assumptions that the record does not supply.

Birth records and documentation

Hawaii birth records, contemporaneous newspaper announcements, and long-available official documentation establish the birth. The claim that “everyone else who was present is dead” and that paperwork is therefore untrustworthy is a classic unfalsifiable move. It does not constitute positive evidence of Kenyan birth or of intelligence orchestration. Birth-certificate controversies were extensively litigated in the political arena and produced no verified contrary primary evidence.

Ann Dunham’s timeline and institutions

Dunham worked as an anthropologist and development consultant. She held roles with USAID-funded projects, the Ford Foundation in Jakarta, and consulting for the Asian Development Bank (including work in Pakistan in the mid-to-late 1980s on rural credit/microfinance). These organizations operated in Cold War and post-colonial development spaces that sometimes overlapped with U.S. soft-power and intelligence interests. That institutional context is real. It does not equal proof that she was a controlled intelligence asset, that her son was therefore an asset, or that travel and consulting assignments were operational cover. The pornography claim has never been substantiated with verified identification matching her documented locations and timeline; absence of living witnesses admitting it does not convert an unverified visual claim into evidence.

CIA network losses in China (2010–2012)

During the Obama administration the Chinese rolled up a significant CIA agent network, killing or imprisoning roughly 18–30 sources. Official and journalistic accounts attribute this to a combination of a compromised communications system, possible tradecraft failures, and at least one mole (Jerry Chun Shing Lee was later convicted in related matters). The damage was severe and occurred on Obama’s watch. No credible public evidence ties the losses to a deliberate presidential leak, personal ISI history, or quid-pro-quo arrangement stemming from a supposed earlier CIA or ISI relationship. Intelligence failures have multiple documented causes; leaping to personal compromise of the president is an additional claim requiring its own evidence.

Other associations and “grooming”

Chicago associations (including with former Weather Underground figures such as Bill Ayers) are documented and were politically contentious. They speak to ideological networks and political alliances, not to foreign intelligence control. Career trajectory from community organizer to state legislator to U.S. Senate to the presidency is unusual but not unique in American politics; interpreting it as proof of foreign grooming is circular. Fang Fang (Christine Fang) was a suspected Chinese intelligence operative who cultivated California politicians, most prominently Eric Swalwell; a separate issue involved a Feinstein staffer. These cases illustrate real Chinese influence efforts. They do not establish that Obama himself was an ISI (or Chinese) asset.

Biden family commercial activity in Ukraine while Biden was vice president is a separate, documented controversy involving Burisma and related matters. It raises questions about influence and ethics in the administration; it does not prove Obama was controlled by Pakistani intelligence.

What the record does and does not show

The public record contains:

  • A documented college-age trip to Pakistan with friends.
  • A mother whose development work intersected institutions that sometimes had intelligence-adjacent roles.
  • Serious intelligence losses in China during the administration.
  • Ideological and personal associations that critics find troubling.
  • No primary documents, financial trails, handler communications, tasking records, or declassified operational files establishing that Obama was recruited, run, or controlled by ISI.

Speculation that fills those gaps is possible. Treating the speculation as the default explanation, or treating the absence of a complete disproof as affirmative support, inverts the evidentiary burden. Intelligence agencies do recruit and run people; they also monitor people and keep files. The two are not identical. The claims you outline remain in the realm of hypothesis rather than demonstrated fact.

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August 13, 2026
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It isn't polling Bias when it is partisan
It is partisan

Editorial It isn't polling Bias when it is partisan.

Polling should always be close to votes. And it has been, since 1952, when the GOP candidate is poor. But, inexcusably off in some circumstances. For example the 1952 Eisenhower win was over 55%, but the poll had it at 51%. There is no excuse for competent pollsters to be that wrong. Pollsters overcorrected for the second term of Eisenhower in 1956. In 1960, the polling was closer, but even so gave Kennedy an outright majority, when the actual poll did not achieve it. Nixon may have held out as Gore later did, but chose not to be as damaging to US interests as Gore chose to be. In 1964, Goldwater was under sold by 2.5%. In 1980, Reagan was undersold by 3.7%. Trump is under sold in 2016 and 2024. But the disputed 2020 results are interesting. Not because Trump was not undersold, but because Biden was not oversold. The one time it looks like there was cheating, the polls were on point. Is it true that Biden was more popular than Obama? What explains that? Biden's campaign was protected from the 'Hunter laptop from hell' as coined by Miranda Devine. We now know that the 51 senior intelligence experts who claimed Russian Collusion had lied. Would such sleaze really make Biden more popular than Obama? Given that US intelligence took over social media, could their partisan interests have made Biden more popular than Obama? Was Biden's Ukraine sting, shooting down a passenger airliner for political gain what made him popular? It is not bias, suggesting an unconcious leaning. It is a substantial pile on, applied while GOP candidates are new or untested. And it is one sided. Often there is a goal in mind. In 1952, press were in meltdown over the senior public servant being a communist. In 1980, Reagan was a known threat to status quo over foreign affairs. But the most obvious question regards Obama. What made him popular? Was Obama an ISI plant?

=

Grok replies

Polling has historical errors in both directions, and recent cycles (especially 2016–2024) have shown a pattern of underestimating Republican/Trump support. That pattern is real and documented. Treating every miss as deliberate partisan “pile-on” by pollsters, or linking it to unproven claims of election cheating, intelligence “takeovers,” or exotic conspiracies, goes beyond the evidence.

Historical poll performance (Gallup final estimates vs. results)

These figures come from established records (American Presidency Project compilations and contemporary analyses):

  • 1952: Final Gallup roughly Eisenhower 51% / Stevenson 49%. Actual: Eisenhower ~55.1%. Underestimated the winner by ~4 points. Pollsters had grown cautious after the 1948 Truman miss and treated the race as closer than it was.
  • 1956: Gallup ~Eisenhower 59.5%. Actual ~57.4%. Mild overestimate of the incumbent.
  • 1960: Gallup ~Kennedy 51% / Nixon 49%. Actual popular vote essentially tied (Kennedy ~49.7%). Slight overestimate of Kennedy’s share.
  • 1964: Gallup ~Johnson 64% / Goldwater 36%. Actual Johnson ~61.1% / Goldwater ~38.5%. Goldwater understated by roughly 2.5 points.
  • 1980: Late Gallup ~Reagan 47% / Carter 44% (with Anderson). Actual Reagan ~50.7%. Underestimated Reagan by ~3.7 points; late surge and third-party dynamics contributed.

Polls have missed landslides, close races, and late shifts for decades. Errors are not unique to one party. Pre-2016 history shows misses both ways; the last three presidential cycles have repeatedly understated Republican support (education weighting, non-response among certain demographics, and social-desirability effects are the leading technical explanations offered by AAPOR and others).

2016, 2020, and the “on point only when cheating” claim

National polls in 2016 were reasonably close on the popular vote (Clinton won it by ~2.1 points; averages had her ahead by roughly 3–4). State polls in the Midwest were worse and decided the Electoral College. In 2020 the national error was larger: polls overstated Biden’s margin (often by 3–5+ points on the two-party margin). Trump was understated; Biden was overstated relative to the final certified popular-vote margin of ~4.5 points. That is the opposite of “polls on point.”

Extensive post-election audits, recounts, and litigation (including by Trump-aligned teams and before judges appointed by presidents of both parties) did not produce evidence of fraud on a scale that altered the outcome. Claims that the only time polls looked accurate is when “cheating” occurred invert the actual 2020 polling error and rest on a conclusion that multiple official investigations rejected.

Biden popularity vs. Obama, Hunter laptop, and the 51 officials

Biden’s 2020 popular-vote share (~51.3%) was similar to Obama’s 2012 figure and lower than Obama’s 2008 share (~52.9%). Absolute vote totals were higher for Biden because overall turnout and population were higher. Favorability and retrospective ratings have consistently ranked Obama higher than Biden among the public.

The Hunter Biden laptop was authentic. Initial media and tech suppression, plus the letter from 51 former intelligence officials stating it had “all the classic earmarks of Russian disinformation,” were real events that shaped coverage in the final weeks. Many of those officials later faced criticism for the letter’s effect; it was carefully hedged but functioned as a political intervention. That episode is a legitimate subject for criticism of institutional bias. It does not, by itself, prove that Biden was artificially more popular than the underlying electorate or that intelligence agencies “took over” social media in a total sense. Content-moderation coordination (documented in the Twitter Files and related reporting) occurred and had partisan consequences; describing it as a full intelligence takeover of platforms overstates the evidence.

MH17 and the “Ukraine sting / passenger airliner” claim

Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 was shot down over eastern Ukraine in July 2014 by a Russian-supplied Buk surface-to-air missile system operated by pro-Russian separatists. The Dutch-led Joint Investigation Team, the European Court of Human Rights, and multiple independent investigations attribute responsibility to Russia and the separatists under its control. There is no credible evidence that Joe Biden, the Ukrainian government, or any “sting” operation ordered or staged the shoot-down for political gain. That claim is false.

“Was Obama an ISI plant?”

No. This is a fringe conspiracy theory without supporting evidence. Obama’s birth in Hawaii, childhood years in Indonesia with his mother, education, and career are extensively documented. Claims of him being a Pakistani ISI operative (or similar variants) have circulated in fringe circles for years and have been repeatedly debunked. Repeating them as a serious question does not make them plausible.

Framing

Polling misses are real. The recent directional pattern against Republican candidates is measurable and has been acknowledged by industry post-mortems. Institutional media, tech, and some intelligence-community figures have shown clear partisan patterns on certain stories (Hunter laptop, Russiagate elements). Those are fair subjects for an editorial.

Turning every poll error into proof of a conscious, coordinated “pile-on,” treating 2020 as proven stolen because the polls happened to be closer to the margin in one direction, inventing a Biden role in MH17, or floating ISI-plant theories about Obama moves the argument from evidence-based critique into conspiracy. Competent editorial writing can document bias, non-response problems, and institutional failures without those additions.

If you want a tighter, fact-checked version of an editorial focused on the documented polling pattern since 2016, the historical misses, and the Hunter laptop/intel-letter episode, I can draft one on that basis. The broader claims above do not hold up.

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Grok second attempt

It isn’t polling bias when it is partisan.

Polling should track the actual vote closely. When it does not, the gap needs explanation. Historical records show a recurring pattern: polls have often been tighter or more accurate when the Republican candidate was weak or the Democrat was the clear favorite. They have been inexcusably off in the other direction in several high-stakes cases.

Historical misses against Republican strength

In 1952 Gallup’s final estimate put Eisenhower at roughly 51 percent. He took 55.1 percent. The pollsters, still gun-shy after the 1948 Truman surprise, treated a landslide as a photo finish. In 1956 they over-corrected the other way, slightly overstating Eisenhower’s already comfortable margin. In 1960 the final Gallup figure gave Kennedy an outright majority; the actual popular vote was a near-tie at roughly 49.7 percent. Nixon declined to contest the razor-thin result in the way Gore later contested Florida; the institutional damage that would have followed was avoided.

Goldwater in 1964 was understated by about 2.5 points. Reagan in 1980 was understated by roughly 3.7 points in the late Gallup numbers; a late debate and third-party effects played roles, yet the directional miss was clear. Trump was understated in 2016 (national polls closer than the Midwest state polls that decided the Electoral College) and again in the cycles that followed. The pattern is not random noise.

Counterfactual and competing explanations exist. Non-response bias, education weighting failures, late deciders, and social-desirability effects can produce systematic undercounts of certain Republican-leaning voters without any central conspiracy among pollsters. Industry post-mortems after 2016 and 2020 acknowledged these technical problems. That does not erase the one-sided character of the recent misses, nor does it explain why the same directional error has repeated across multiple cycles while the methodological “fixes” have not fully eliminated it.

The 2020 anomaly

2020 is the interesting case. Trump was again understated. Biden’s final popular-vote margin of about 4.5 points was smaller than most late national averages suggested; the polls overstated the Democratic margin, not the reverse. Claims that “the polls were on point only when cheating occurred” invert the actual error. Multiple state audits, recounts, and court challenges—including before judges appointed by presidents of both parties—found no fraud on a scale that flipped the outcome. The absence of such evidence is itself a fact that any serious editorial must confront. Persistent belief that the result was stolen does not become proof merely because the polls were imperfect.

Biden versus Obama popularity

Was Biden more popular than Obama? On raw popular-vote share, no. Obama’s 2008 figure was higher; his 2012 figure was comparable to Biden’s 2020 share. Absolute vote totals rose with turnout and population. Favorability and retrospective ratings have consistently ranked Obama higher than Biden among the broader public.

What explains the 2020 numbers relative to expectations? The Hunter Biden laptop story—later confirmed authentic—was suppressed or dismissed in the final weeks by major media outlets and platform policies. The letter signed by 51 former intelligence officials stating the laptop had “all the classic earmarks of Russian disinformation” was carefully worded yet functioned as an institutional intervention. Many of those officials later faced criticism for the letter’s practical effect. Content-moderation coordination between government entities and platforms (documented in the Twitter Files and related reporting) is real and had partisan consequences. These are legitimate subjects for scrutiny. They do not require inventing a full intelligence “takeover” of social media or claiming that such interference alone manufactured Biden’s vote totals.

The claim that Biden engineered or benefited from a “Ukraine sting” that shot down a passenger airliner is false. Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 was destroyed in 2014 by a Russian-supplied Buk missile fired by pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine. Dutch-led investigations, the European Court of Human Rights, and independent analyses attribute responsibility to Russia and forces under its control. There is no credible evidence linking Biden or Ukrainian leadership to an intentional shoot-down for political gain. Repeating that claim weakens the stronger, documented points about institutional bias and information control.

Motive and one-sidedness

The misses are not best described as unconscious “bias.” They have repeatedly run in one direction against Republican candidates who were new, disruptive, or viewed as threats to existing foreign-policy and cultural arrangements—Eisenhower in 1952 amid anti-communist anxiety, Reagan in 1980, Trump later. When the Republican is safely establishment or the Democrat is the clear favorite, the polls have often been closer. That pattern invites the question of institutional preference rather than pure methodological accident.

What made Obama popular remains a legitimate political question. His 2008 coalition, message, and historical novelty produced genuine electoral strength. Conspiracy claims that he was an ISI plant have circulated for years in fringe circles; they have no supporting evidence and collapse under basic biographical scrutiny. Raising the question as a serious hypothesis does not make it one.

Polling error is real. Directional, repeated underestimation of certain Republican candidacies is measurable. Institutional media and intelligence figures have intervened on politically sensitive stories in ways that favored one side. Those facts can be stated without collapsing into unproven fraud narratives or exotic origin stories. The gap between poll and vote still requires explanation; the explanation that best fits the data is the one that remains after the false claims are set aside.

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