Victoria ALP Shuffles Leadership: But Won’t Address the Issues
Victoria’s Labor Party has performed its familiar ritual. Jacinta Allan is gone. Ben Carroll is Premier. The faces change; the record does not. After years of accumulated failure, the party has chosen continuity dressed up as renewal. Victorians should not be fooled.
The problems did not begin with Allan. They date to the moment Labor regained office by promising responsible policing, disciplined spending and practical infrastructure. What followed was the opposite. Police numbers were constrained while crime rose. Budgets expanded through debt and pork-barrelling. Major projects became vehicles for political favour rather than efficient delivery. Energy policy deliberately constrained the carbon economy, including natural gas, leaving households and industry exposed to higher costs and less reliability.
The COVID years crystallised the approach. Victoria endured some of the world’s longest lockdowns. Oversight of union power on construction sites was weakened. A drug consumption facility was placed near a primary school. Longstanding, properly used medications were effectively restricted: chemists moved them behind the counter to prescription-only status and doctors were counselled against prescribing them. These were not minor administrative adjustments. They reflected a governing culture that preferred control and ideology over evidence and proportion.
School standards have declined in reading, writing and mathematics. Private tutoring has expanded to fill the gap the system created. Health services have been stretched and politicised. Corruption allegations around the Big Build and construction unions accumulated under Daniel Andrews. He resigned and moved into profitable private engagement. Allan inherited the same machine and ultimately resigned under internal pressure. Labor now needs a scapegoat if it is to pretend at competence. The more likely path is the familiar one: double down, rebrand, and insist the real problem is the opposition or the media.
The Liberals have not filled the vacuum. For years they have run a lite version of Labor’s agenda, staying close enough to avoid sharp differentiation until the final stretch of an election campaign. That strategy has starved the opposition of distinct support. Voters who want genuine change see little reason to switch. Media coverage compounds the difficulty. Double standards are routine. A Liberal leader can be denounced for “lobster with a mobster” while far more consequential failures—security contracts, lockdown enforcement, procurement scandals—receive softer treatment when Labor is responsible.
One Nation has absorbed frustrated Liberal and conservative voters. Yet it carries its own limitations. An emphasis on cultural flashpoints, particularly around Islam, has often substituted for detailed policy on cost of living, energy, education and institutional reform. That focus narrows its appeal and hands Labor and the media an easy line of attack.
The result, heading into the November election, is a narrowed field. Labor offers continuity under a new name. The Liberals offer cautious proximity. One Nation offers protest without a fully developed governing alternative. No clear conservative or populist figure has yet emerged who can convert widespread dissatisfaction into a coherent governing project. Victorians face another election in which real choice is constrained by the options on the ballot.
Leadership changes are easy. Addressing the record is harder. So far, Victorian Labor has shown little interest in the harder task.


